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Wikki Tourist vs Enugu Rangers — NPFL 2019

Wikki Tourist
Wikki Tourist
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Enugu Rangers
Enugu Rangers
2/5/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 6Abubakar Tafawa Balewa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Wikki Tourist50%
×Draw29%
Enugu Rangers21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wikki Tourist
1.27
Enugu Rangers
0.72

Wikki Tourist creates 76% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 130 away

creates per match

Wikki Tourist
1.42
Enugu Rangers
0.71

allows per match

Wikki Tourist
0.73
Enugu Rangers
1.13

finishing

Wikki Tourist+0.00on par
Enugu Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wikki Tourist ↓

Enugu Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Wikki Tourist or draw
79%
Wikki Tourist or Enugu Rangers
71%
Draw or Enugu Rangers
50%

Winning margin

Wikki Tourist wins by 2+
23%
Enugu Rangers wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Wikki Tourist 1+ goals
72%
Wikki Tourist 2+ goals
36%
Wikki Tourist 3+ goals
14%
Enugu Rangers 1+ goals
51%
Enugu Rangers 2+ goals
16%
Enugu Rangers 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Wikki Tourist (draw refunded)
70%
Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wikki Tourist at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.73 · 91 matches

Enugu Rangers away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wikki Tourist attack 1.42 + Enugu Rangers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.27

Enugu Rangers attack 0.71 + Wikki Tourist defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wikki Tourist scores more
50%
level
29%
Enugu Rangers scores more
21%

Wikki Tourist at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wikki Tourist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wikki Tourist vs Enugu Rangers

Wikki Tourist beat Enugu Rangers 1-0 in NPFL on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Abubakar Tafawa Balewa Stadium in Bauchi.