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Enugu Rangers vs Wikki Tourist — NPFL 2019

Enugu Rangers
Enugu Rangers
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wikki Tourist
Wikki Tourist
4/30/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 16Awka City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Enugu Rangers62%
×Draw25%
Wikki Tourist12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enugu Rangers
1.54
Wikki Tourist
0.52

Enugu Rangers creates 196% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 89 away

creates per match

Enugu Rangers
1.61
Wikki Tourist
0.52

allows per match

Enugu Rangers
0.52
Wikki Tourist
1.48

finishing

Enugu Rangers+0.00on par
Wikki Tourist+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enugu Rangers ↓

Wikki Tourist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Enugu Rangers or draw
88%
Enugu Rangers or Wikki Tourist
75%
Draw or Wikki Tourist
38%

Winning margin

Enugu Rangers wins by 2+
34%
Wikki Tourist wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Enugu Rangers 1+ goals
79%
Enugu Rangers 2+ goals
45%
Enugu Rangers 3+ goals
20%
Wikki Tourist 1+ goals
41%
Wikki Tourist 2+ goals
10%
Wikki Tourist 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)
84%
Wikki Tourist (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enugu Rangers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.52 · 129 matches

Wikki Tourist away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.48 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enugu Rangers attack 1.61 + Wikki Tourist defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.54

Wikki Tourist attack 0.52 + Enugu Rangers defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Enugu Rangers scores more
62%
level
25%
Wikki Tourist scores more
12%

Enugu Rangers at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Enugu Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Enugu Rangers 3–0 Wikki Tourist

Enugu Rangers beat Wikki Tourist 3-0 in NPFL on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Awka City Stadium in Awka.