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Wikki Tourist vs Barau FC — NPFL 2019

Wikki Tourist
Wikki Tourist
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Barau FC
Barau FC
3/21/2026NPFLNPFL · Round 31Abubarkar Tafawa Balewa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Wikki Tourist54%
×Draw31%
Barau FC15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wikki Tourist
1.21
Barau FC
0.49

Wikki Tourist creates 147% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 19 away

creates per match

Wikki Tourist
1.42
Barau FC
0.26

allows per match

Wikki Tourist
0.73
Barau FC
1.00

finishing

Wikki Tourist+0.00on par
Barau FC+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wikki Tourist ↓

Barau FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Wikki Tourist or draw
85%
Wikki Tourist or Barau FC
69%
Draw or Barau FC
46%

Winning margin

Wikki Tourist wins by 2+
25%
Barau FC wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Wikki Tourist 1+ goals
70%
Wikki Tourist 2+ goals
34%
Wikki Tourist 3+ goals
12%
Barau FC 1+ goals
39%
Barau FC 2+ goals
9%
Barau FC 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Wikki Tourist (draw refunded)
78%
Barau FC (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wikki Tourist at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.73 · 91 matches

Barau FC away — creates 0.26, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wikki Tourist attack 1.42 + Barau FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Barau FC attack 0.26 + Wikki Tourist defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Wikki Tourist scores more
54%
level
31%
Barau FC scores more
15%

Wikki Tourist at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Wikki Tourist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wikki Tourist vs Barau FC

Wikki Tourist and Barau FC drew 0-0 in NPFL on March 21, 2026.

The match was played at Abubarkar Tafawa Balewa Stadium in Bauchi.