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Barau FC vs Wikki Tourist — NPFL 2019

Barau FC
Barau FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wikki Tourist
Wikki Tourist
11/2/2025NPFLNPFL · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Barau FC61%
×Draw26%
Wikki Tourist13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barau FC
1.50
Wikki Tourist
0.55

Barau FC creates 173% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 89 away

creates per match

Barau FC
1.53
Wikki Tourist
0.52

allows per match

Barau FC
0.58
Wikki Tourist
1.48

finishing

Barau FC+0.00on par
Wikki Tourist+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barau FC ↓

Wikki Tourist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Barau FC or draw
87%
Barau FC or Wikki Tourist
74%
Draw or Wikki Tourist
39%

Winning margin

Barau FC wins by 2+
32%
Wikki Tourist wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Barau FC 1+ goals
78%
Barau FC 2+ goals
44%
Barau FC 3+ goals
19%
Wikki Tourist 1+ goals
42%
Wikki Tourist 2+ goals
11%
Wikki Tourist 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Barau FC (draw refunded)
82%
Wikki Tourist (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barau FC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Wikki Tourist away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.48 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barau FC attack 1.53 + Wikki Tourist defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.50

Wikki Tourist attack 0.52 + Barau FC defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Barau FC scores more
61%
level
26%
Wikki Tourist scores more
13%

Barau FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Barau FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Barau FC 0–0 Wikki Tourist

Barau FC and Wikki Tourist drew 0-0 in NPFL on November 2, 2025.