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Wikki Tourist vs Akwa United — NPFL 2019

Wikki Tourist
Wikki Tourist
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Akwa United
Akwa United
7/3/2022NPFLNPFL · Round 36Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Wikki Tourist52%
×Draw28%
Akwa United19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wikki Tourist
1.35
Akwa United
0.70

Wikki Tourist creates 93% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 111 away

creates per match

Wikki Tourist
1.42
Akwa United
0.66

allows per match

Wikki Tourist
0.73
Akwa United
1.28

finishing

Wikki Tourist+0.00on par
Akwa United+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wikki Tourist ↓

Akwa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Wikki Tourist or draw
81%
Wikki Tourist or Akwa United
72%
Draw or Akwa United
48%

Winning margin

Wikki Tourist wins by 2+
25%
Akwa United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Wikki Tourist 1+ goals
74%
Wikki Tourist 2+ goals
39%
Wikki Tourist 3+ goals
15%
Akwa United 1+ goals
50%
Akwa United 2+ goals
16%
Akwa United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Wikki Tourist (draw refunded)
73%
Akwa United (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wikki Tourist at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.73 · 91 matches

Akwa United away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.28 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wikki Tourist attack 1.42 + Akwa United defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.35

Akwa United attack 0.66 + Wikki Tourist defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Wikki Tourist scores more
52%
level
28%
Akwa United scores more
19%

Wikki Tourist at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Wikki Tourist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Wikki Tourist 2–0 Akwa United

Wikki Tourist beat Akwa United 2-0 in NPFL on July 3, 2022.

The match was played at Pantami Township Stadium in Gombe.