Akwa United 2–0 Wikki Tourist: Result & Stats

Akwa United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wikki Tourist

3/2/2022

NPFL · Round 16Nest of Champions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Akwa United62%

×Draw25%

Wikki Tourist13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akwa UnitedExpected goals in this matchWikki Tourist

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.56

Akwa United

1.55

Wikki Tourist

0.56

Akwa United creates 177% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 89 away

1.62

creates per match

0.52

0.61

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Akwa United

1.62

Wikki Tourist

0.52

allows per match

Akwa United

0.61

Wikki Tourist

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akwa United+0.00on par

Wikki Tourist+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa United ↓

Wikki Tourist →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Akwa United or draw

87%

Akwa United or Wikki Tourist

75%

Draw or Wikki Tourist

38%

Winning margin

Akwa United wins by 2+

33%

Wikki Tourist wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Akwa United 1+ goals

79%

Akwa United 2+ goals

46%

Akwa United 3+ goals

20%

Wikki Tourist 1+ goals

43%

Wikki Tourist 2+ goals

11%

Wikki Tourist 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Akwa United (draw refunded)

82%

Wikki Tourist (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa United at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.61 · 111 matches

Wikki Tourist away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.48 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa United attack 1.62 + Wikki Tourist defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.55

Wikki Tourist attack 0.52 + Akwa United defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Akwa United scores more

62%

level

25%

Wikki Tourist scores more

13%

Akwa United at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Akwa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff