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Wikielec vs Mamry Giżycko — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Wikielec
Wikielec
FT
1 – 2
Mamry Giżycko
Mamry Giżycko
R. Rainski 77' (OG)
K. Wiszniewski 57'
S. Lapinski 54'
9/17/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Stadion Wikielec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Wikielec48%
×Draw24%
Mamry Giżycko28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wikielec
1.67
Mamry Giżycko
1.23

Wikielec creates 36% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 18 away

creates per match

Wikielec
1.28
Mamry Giżycko
1.22

allows per match

Wikielec
1.24
Mamry Giżycko
2.06

finishing

Wikielec+0.00on par
Mamry Giżycko+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wikielec ↓

Mamry Giżycko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Wikielec or draw
72%
Wikielec or Mamry Giżycko
76%
Draw or Mamry Giżycko
52%

Winning margin

Wikielec wins by 2+
25%
Mamry Giżycko wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wikielec 1+ goals
81%
Wikielec 2+ goals
50%
Wikielec 3+ goals
23%
Mamry Giżycko 1+ goals
71%
Mamry Giżycko 2+ goals
35%
Mamry Giżycko 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wikielec (draw refunded)
63%
Mamry Giżycko (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wikielec at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.24 · 86 matches

Mamry Giżycko away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wikielec attack 1.28 + Mamry Giżycko defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.67

Mamry Giżycko attack 1.22 + Wikielec defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wikielec scores more
48%
level
24%
Mamry Giżycko scores more
28%

Wikielec at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wikielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
S. Lapinski
57'
K. Wiszniewski
77'
R. RainskiOwn goal
85'
K. Wojciech
85'
K. Wojciech

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wikielec vs Mamry Giżycko

Mamry Giżycko beat Wikielec 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 17, 2021.

Goals: S. Lapinski (54'), K. Wiszniewski (57'), R. Rainski (77' o.g.).

The match was played at Stadion Wikielec in Wikielec.