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Mamry Giżycko vs Wikielec — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Mamry Giżycko
Mamry Giżycko
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Wikielec
Wikielec
P. Grzybowski 24'
5/18/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Stadion Miejski MOSIR Giżycko

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Mamry Giżycko38%
×Draw25%
Wikielec38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamry Giżycko
1.44
Wikielec
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 86 away

creates per match

Mamry Giżycko
1.17
Wikielec
1.17

allows per match

Mamry Giżycko
1.72
Wikielec
1.72

finishing

Mamry Giżycko+0.00on par
Wikielec+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamry Giżycko ↓

Wikielec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mamry Giżycko or draw
62%
Mamry Giżycko or Wikielec
75%
Draw or Wikielec
62%

Winning margin

Mamry Giżycko wins by 2+
18%
Wikielec wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Mamry Giżycko 1+ goals
76%
Mamry Giżycko 2+ goals
42%
Mamry Giżycko 3+ goals
18%
Wikielec 1+ goals
76%
Wikielec 2+ goals
42%
Wikielec 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Mamry Giżycko (draw refunded)
50%
Wikielec (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamry Giżycko at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Wikielec away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamry Giżycko attack 1.17 + Wikielec defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.44

Wikielec attack 1.17 + Mamry Giżycko defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mamry Giżycko scores more
38%
level
25%
Wikielec scores more
38%

Mamry Giżycko at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mamry Giżycko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
P. Grzybowski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mamry Giżycko vs Wikielec

Wikielec beat Mamry Giżycko 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 18, 2022.

Goals: P. Grzybowski (24').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski MOSIR Giżycko in Giżycko.