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Wikielec vs Błonianka Błonie — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Wikielec
Wikielec
FT
0 – 1
Błonianka Błonie
Błonianka Błonie
11/13/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Stadion Wikielec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Wikielec41%
×Draw25%
Błonianka Błonie34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wikielec
1.46
Błonianka Błonie
1.31

Wikielec creates 11% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 52 away

creates per match

Wikielec
1.28
Błonianka Błonie
1.37

allows per match

Wikielec
1.24
Błonianka Błonie
1.63

finishing

Wikielec+0.00on par
Błonianka Błonie+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wikielec ↓

Błonianka Błonie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Wikielec or draw
66%
Wikielec or Błonianka Błonie
75%
Draw or Błonianka Błonie
59%

Winning margin

Wikielec wins by 2+
20%
Błonianka Błonie wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wikielec 1+ goals
77%
Wikielec 2+ goals
43%
Wikielec 3+ goals
18%
Błonianka Błonie 1+ goals
73%
Błonianka Błonie 2+ goals
38%
Błonianka Błonie 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Wikielec (draw refunded)
55%
Błonianka Błonie (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wikielec at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.24 · 86 matches

Błonianka Błonie away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wikielec attack 1.28 + Błonianka Błonie defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Błonianka Błonie attack 1.37 + Wikielec defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wikielec scores more
41%
level
25%
Błonianka Błonie scores more
34%

Wikielec at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wikielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wikielec vs Błonianka Błonie

Błonianka Błonie beat Wikielec 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Wikielec in Wikielec.