Błonianka Błonie 2–1 Wikielec: Result & Stats

Błonianka Błonie

FT

2 – 1

Wikielec

11/11/2020

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Stadion Błonianka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Błonianka Błonie43%

×Draw23%

Wikielec34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Błonianka BłonieExpected goals in this matchWikielec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.51

Błonianka Błonie

1.73

Wikielec

1.51

Błonianka Błonie creates 15% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 86 away

1.73

creates per match

1.17

1.85

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Błonianka Błonie

1.73

Wikielec

1.17

allows per match

Błonianka Błonie

1.85

Wikielec

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Błonianka Błonie+0.00on par

Wikielec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Błonianka Błonie ↓

Wikielec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Błonianka Błonie or draw

66%

Błonianka Błonie or Wikielec

77%

Draw or Wikielec

57%

Winning margin

Błonianka Błonie wins by 2+

23%

Wikielec wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Błonianka Błonie 1+ goals

82%

Błonianka Błonie 2+ goals

52%

Błonianka Błonie 3+ goals

25%

Wikielec 1+ goals

78%

Wikielec 2+ goals

44%

Wikielec 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Błonianka Błonie (draw refunded)

56%

Wikielec (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Błonianka Błonie at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.85 · 52 matches

Wikielec away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Błonianka Błonie attack 1.73 + Wikielec defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.73

Wikielec attack 1.17 + Błonianka Błonie defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Błonianka Błonie scores more

43%

level

23%

Wikielec scores more

34%

Błonianka Błonie at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Błonianka Błonie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff