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Wigry Suwałki vs Sokół Aleksandrów — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Wigry Suwałki
Wigry Suwałki
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
8/21/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Wigry Suwałki54%
×Draw23%
Sokół Aleksandrów23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigry Suwałki
1.79
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.08

Wigry Suwałki creates 66% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 52 away

creates per match

Wigry Suwałki
1.88
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.13

allows per match

Wigry Suwałki
1.03
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.71

finishing

Wigry Suwałki+0.00on par
Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigry Suwałki ↓

Sokół Aleksandrów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Wigry Suwałki or draw
77%
Wigry Suwałki or Sokół Aleksandrów
77%
Draw or Sokół Aleksandrów
46%

Winning margin

Wigry Suwałki wins by 2+
30%
Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Wigry Suwałki 1+ goals
83%
Wigry Suwałki 2+ goals
53%
Wigry Suwałki 3+ goals
26%
Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
66%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
29%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wigry Suwałki (draw refunded)
70%
Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigry Suwałki at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

Sokół Aleksandrów away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigry Suwałki attack 1.88 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.79

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.13 + Wigry Suwałki defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Wigry Suwałki scores more
54%
level
23%
Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
23%

Wigry Suwałki at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Wigry Suwałki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wigry Suwałki vs Sokół Aleksandrów

Wigry Suwałki and Sokół Aleksandrów drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Suwałki.