Sokół Aleksandrów 0–1 Wigry Suwałki: Result & Stats

Sokół Aleksandrów

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Wigry Suwałki

3/15/2025

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sokół Aleksandrów32%

×Draw26%

Wigry Suwałki42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokół AleksandrówExpected goals in this matchWigry Suwałki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.43

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.22

Wigry Suwałki

1.43

Wigry Suwałki creates 17% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 34 away

1.08

creates per match

1.35

1.50

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.08

Wigry Suwałki

1.35

allows per match

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.50

Wigry Suwałki

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Wigry Suwałki+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Aleksandrów ↓

Wigry Suwałki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sokół Aleksandrów or draw

58%

Sokół Aleksandrów or Wigry Suwałki

74%

Draw or Wigry Suwałki

68%

Winning margin

Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+

13%

Wigry Suwałki wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals

70%

Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals

34%

Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals

12%

Wigry Suwałki 1+ goals

76%

Wigry Suwałki 2+ goals

42%

Wigry Suwałki 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)

43%

Wigry Suwałki (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Aleksandrów at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Wigry Suwałki away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.08 + Wigry Suwałki defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.22

Wigry Suwałki attack 1.35 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sokół Aleksandrów scores more

32%

level

26%

Wigry Suwałki scores more

42%

Wigry Suwałki at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wigry Suwałki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff