Wigry Suwałki 2–3 Puszcza Niepołomice

Wigry Suwałki

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Puszcza Niepołomice

K. Sabillo 83', 81'

José Embaló 58'

J. Bąk 52'

M .Czarny 17'

9/7/2019

I Liga · Round 8Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Wigry Suwałki36%

×Draw26%

Puszcza Niepołomice38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wigry SuwałkiExpected goals in this matchPuszcza Niepołomice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.36

Wigry Suwałki

1.30

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 99 away

1.23

creates per match

1.19

1.53

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Wigry Suwałki

1.23

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.19

allows per match

Wigry Suwałki

1.53

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wigry Suwałki+0.00on par

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigry Suwałki ↓

Puszcza Niepołomice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Wigry Suwałki or draw

62%

Wigry Suwałki or Puszcza Niepołomice

74%

Draw or Puszcza Niepołomice

64%

Winning margin

Wigry Suwałki wins by 2+

16%

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Wigry Suwałki 1+ goals

73%

Wigry Suwałki 2+ goals

37%

Wigry Suwałki 3+ goals

14%

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals

74%

Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals

39%

Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Wigry Suwałki (draw refunded)

48%

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigry Suwałki at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

Puszcza Niepołomice away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.37 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigry Suwałki attack 1.23 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.30

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.19 + Wigry Suwałki defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wigry Suwałki scores more

36%

level

26%

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more

38%

Puszcza Niepołomice at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Puszcza Niepołomice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

M .Czarny

46'

M. Żebrakowski← S. Łapiński

52'

J. Bąk

56'

G. Aftyka

58'

José Embaló

65'

W. Zytek← J. Bąk

68'

K. Sabillo← A. Piekarski

74'

B. Widejko← H. Tomalski

81'

81'

83'

85'

85'

L. Uwakwe← B. Widejko

90'

M. Mikolajczyk

90'

O. Furst

90'

W. Zytek

Wigry

Puszcza

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Fedoruk

46'▲M. Żebrakowski←▼S. Łapiński

68'▲K. Sabillo←▼A. Piekarski

81'▲O. Fürst←▼C. Sauczek

Wigry Suwałki substitutes

ŻebrakowskiSabilloFürst

Manager: T. Tułacz

65'▲W. Zytek←▼J. Bąk

74'▲B. Widejko←▼H. Tomalski

85'▲L. Uwakwe←▼B. Widejko

Puszcza Niepołomice substitutes

ZytekWidejkoUwakwe