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Puszcza Niepołomice vs Wigry Suwałki — I Liga 2026

Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wigry Suwałki
Wigry Suwałki
P. Stawarczyk 65'
R. Bartczak 48'
10/28/2018I LigaI Liga · Round 16Stadion ul. Kusocińskiego (Niepołomice)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Puszcza Niepołomice49%
×Draw27%
Wigry Suwałki24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.44
Wigry Suwałki
0.91

Puszcza Niepołomice creates 58% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 29 away

creates per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.19
Wigry Suwałki
0.72

allows per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.10
Wigry Suwałki
1.69

finishing

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par
Wigry Suwałki+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puszcza Niepołomice ↓

Wigry Suwałki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Puszcza Niepołomice or draw
76%
Puszcza Niepołomice or Wigry Suwałki
73%
Draw or Wigry Suwałki
51%

Winning margin

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
24%
Wigry Suwałki wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
76%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
42%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
18%
Wigry Suwałki 1+ goals
60%
Wigry Suwałki 2+ goals
23%
Wigry Suwałki 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
67%
Wigry Suwałki (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puszcza Niepołomice at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.10 · 98 matches

Wigry Suwałki away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.19 + Wigry Suwałki defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.44

Wigry Suwałki attack 0.72 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
49%
level
27%
Wigry Suwałki scores more
24%

Puszcza Niepołomice at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Puszcza Niepołomice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
R. Bartczak
65'
P. Stawarczyk

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Wigry Suwałki

Puszcza Niepołomice and Wigry Suwałki drew 1-1 in I Liga on October 28, 2018.

Goals: R. Bartczak (48'), P. Stawarczyk (65').

The match was played at Stadion ul. Kusocińskiego (Niepołomice).