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Wigry Suwałki vs Olimpia Elbląg — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Wigry Suwałki
Wigry Suwałki
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Olimpia Elbląg
Olimpia Elbląg
L. Swiety 62'
K. Glowicki 55'
K. Pajnowski 45'
J. Kwiatkowski 18'
D. Kozera 45' (pen)
10/25/2025III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group I - 14Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wigry Suwałki57%
×Draw22%
Olimpia Elbląg21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigry Suwałki
1.91
Olimpia Elbląg
1.08

Wigry Suwałki creates 77% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Wigry Suwałki
1.88
Olimpia Elbląg
1.12

allows per match

Wigry Suwałki
1.03
Olimpia Elbląg
1.94

finishing

Wigry Suwałki+0.00on par
Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigry Suwałki ↓

Olimpia Elbląg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wigry Suwałki or draw
79%
Wigry Suwałki or Olimpia Elbląg
78%
Draw or Olimpia Elbląg
43%

Winning margin

Wigry Suwałki wins by 2+
33%
Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wigry Suwałki 1+ goals
85%
Wigry Suwałki 2+ goals
57%
Wigry Suwałki 3+ goals
30%
Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals
66%
Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals
29%
Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wigry Suwałki (draw refunded)
73%
Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigry Suwałki at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

Olimpia Elbląg away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigry Suwałki attack 1.88 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.91

Olimpia Elbląg attack 1.12 + Wigry Suwałki defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Wigry Suwałki scores more
57%
level
22%
Olimpia Elbląg scores more
21%

Wigry Suwałki at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Wigry Suwałki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
J. Kwiatkowski
45'
D. KozeraPenalty
45'
K. Pajnowski
55'
K. Glowicki
62'
L. Swiety
Wigry
Olimpia
Pawel Cimochowski
Manager: Pawel Cimochowski
K. Szweda
Manager: K. Szweda

III Liga - Group 1: Wigry Suwałki 4–1 Olimpia Elbląg

Wigry Suwałki beat Olimpia Elbląg 4-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 25, 2025.

Goals: J. Kwiatkowski (18'), D. Kozera (45' pen), K. Pajnowski (45'), K. Glowicki (55'), L. Swiety (62').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Suwałki.