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Olimpia Elbląg vs Wigry Suwałki — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Olimpia Elbląg
Olimpia Elbląg
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Wigry Suwałki
Wigry Suwałki
M. Mlynarczyk 84'
J. Kwiatkowski 43'
B. Guzdek 34'
L. Swiety 18'
5/13/2026III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group I - 31Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Olimpia Elbląg33%
×Draw24%
Wigry Suwałki42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Elbląg
1.38
Wigry Suwałki
1.58

Wigry Suwałki creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Olimpia Elbląg
1.41
Wigry Suwałki
1.35

allows per match

Olimpia Elbląg
1.82
Wigry Suwałki
1.35

finishing

Olimpia Elbląg+0.00on par
Wigry Suwałki+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Elbląg ↓

Wigry Suwałki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Olimpia Elbląg or draw
58%
Olimpia Elbląg or Wigry Suwałki
76%
Draw or Wigry Suwałki
67%

Winning margin

Olimpia Elbląg wins by 2+
15%
Wigry Suwałki wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Olimpia Elbląg 1+ goals
75%
Olimpia Elbląg 2+ goals
40%
Olimpia Elbląg 3+ goals
16%
Wigry Suwałki 1+ goals
79%
Wigry Suwałki 2+ goals
47%
Wigry Suwałki 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Elbląg (draw refunded)
44%
Wigry Suwałki (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Elbląg at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

Wigry Suwałki away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Elbląg attack 1.41 + Wigry Suwałki defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Wigry Suwałki attack 1.35 + Olimpia Elbląg defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Olimpia Elbląg scores more
33%
level
24%
Wigry Suwałki scores more
42%

Wigry Suwałki at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wigry Suwałki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
L. Swiety
34'
B. Guzdek
43'
J. Kwiatkowski
84'
M. Mlynarczyk
Olimpia
Wigry
K. Szweda
Manager: K. Szweda
Pawel Cimochowski
Manager: Pawel Cimochowski

III Liga - Group 1: Olimpia Elbląg 1–3 Wigry Suwałki

Wigry Suwałki beat Olimpia Elbląg 3-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 13, 2026.

Goals: L. Swiety (18'), B. Guzdek (34'), J. Kwiatkowski (43'), M. Mlynarczyk (84').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Elblag.