Wigry Suwałki 1–0 Nieciecza: Result & Stats

Wigry Suwałki

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nieciecza

Ł. Sosnowski 32'

8/25/2019

I Liga · Round 6Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Wigry Suwałki31%

×Draw25%

Nieciecza44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wigry SuwałkiExpected goals in this matchNieciecza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.52

Wigry Suwałki

1.22

Nieciecza

1.52

Nieciecza creates 25% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 100 away

1.23

creates per match

1.50

1.53

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Wigry Suwałki

1.23

Nieciecza

1.50

allows per match

Wigry Suwałki

1.53

Nieciecza

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wigry Suwałki+0.00on par

Nieciecza+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigry Suwałki ↓

Nieciecza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Wigry Suwałki or draw

56%

Wigry Suwałki or Nieciecza

75%

Draw or Nieciecza

69%

Winning margin

Wigry Suwałki wins by 2+

13%

Nieciecza wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Wigry Suwałki 1+ goals

70%

Wigry Suwałki 2+ goals

34%

Wigry Suwałki 3+ goals

12%

Nieciecza 1+ goals

78%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

45%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Wigry Suwałki (draw refunded)

41%

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigry Suwałki at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigry Suwałki attack 1.23 + Nieciecza defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.22

Nieciecza attack 1.50 + Wigry Suwałki defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wigry Suwałki scores more

31%

level

25%

Nieciecza scores more

44%

Nieciecza at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

J. Kielb

24'

32'

50'

59'

62'

62'

V. Jovanović← W. Kamiński

66'

R. Bartczak← S. Łapiński

70'

K. Sabillo← P. Gierach

80'

M. Ozga← Joel Huertas

80'

P. Mišák← P. Wlazło

Wigry

Nieciecza

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Fedoruk

66'▲R. Bartczak←▼S. Łapiński

70'▲K. Sabillo←▼P. Gierach

80'▲M. Ozga←▼Joel Huertas

Wigry Suwałki substitutes

BartczakSabilloOzga

Manager: P. Mandrysz

62'▲D. Kalisz←▼R. Gergel

62'▲V. Jovanović←▼W. Kamiński

80'▲P. Mišák←▼P. Wlazło

Nieciecza substitutes

KaliszJovanovićMišák

Match Recap: Wigry Suwałki vs Nieciecza

Wigry Suwałki beat Nieciecza 1-0 in I Liga on August 25, 2019.

Goals: Ł. Sosnowski (32').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Suwałki.

Wigry Suwałki vs Nieciecza — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Wigry Suwałki vs Nieciecza