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Nieciecza vs Wigry Suwałki — I Liga 2026

Nieciecza
Nieciecza
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wigry Suwałki
Wigry Suwałki
P. Wlazło 12' (pen)
3/9/2019I LigaI Liga · Round 23Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza (Nieciecza)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Nieciecza57%
×Draw24%
Wigry Suwałki19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nieciecza
1.71
Wigry Suwałki
0.89

Nieciecza creates 92% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 29 away

creates per match

Nieciecza
1.72
Wigry Suwałki
0.72

allows per match

Nieciecza
1.06
Wigry Suwałki
1.69

finishing

Nieciecza+0.00on par
Wigry Suwałki+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 52Over: 4852%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nieciecza ↓

Wigry Suwałki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nieciecza or draw
81%
Nieciecza or Wigry Suwałki
76%
Draw or Wigry Suwałki
43%

Winning margin

Nieciecza wins by 2+
31%
Wigry Suwałki wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Nieciecza 1+ goals
82%
Nieciecza 2+ goals
51%
Nieciecza 3+ goals
24%
Wigry Suwałki 1+ goals
59%
Wigry Suwałki 2+ goals
22%
Wigry Suwałki 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Nieciecza (draw refunded)
74%
Wigry Suwałki (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nieciecza at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.06 · 96 matches

Wigry Suwałki away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nieciecza attack 1.72 + Wigry Suwałki defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.71

Wigry Suwałki attack 0.72 + Nieciecza defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nieciecza scores more
57%
level
24%
Wigry Suwałki scores more
19%

Nieciecza at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
P. WlazłoPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Nieciecza 1–0 Wigry Suwałki

Nieciecza beat Wigry Suwałki 1-0 in I Liga on March 9, 2019.

Goals: P. Wlazło (12' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza (Nieciecza).