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Wigan vs Plymouth — League One 2018

Wigan
Wigan
Preview
15:00
Plymouth
Plymouth
11/28/2026League OneLeague One · Round 17The Brick Community Stadium
Big match
47%
Plymouth
model favours
29%24%47%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Wigan29%
×Draw24%
Plymouth47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigan
1.28
Plymouth
1.67

Plymouth creates 30% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

creates per match

Wigan
1.34
Plymouth
2.00

allows per match

Wigan
1.34
Plymouth
1.22

finishing

Wigan-0.45scores less
Plymouth-0.38scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Wigan or draw
53%
Wigan or Plymouth
76%
Draw or Plymouth
71%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+
12%
Plymouth wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals
72%
Wigan 2+ goals
37%
Wigan 3+ goals
14%
Plymouth 1+ goals
81%
Plymouth 2+ goals
50%
Plymouth 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)
39%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.34 · 9 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.34 + Plymouth defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.28

Plymouth attack 2.00 + Wigan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wigan scores more
29%
level
24%
Plymouth scores more
47%

Plymouth at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth have scored in 15 games running
  • Plymouth have won 5 in a row
  • Plymouth score first in only 28% of matches
  • 72% of Plymouth’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Plymouth fall short of their xG (1.6 vs 2.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Wigan
Balanced
Plymouth
Attack-heavy
48%Possession50%
74%Pass accuracy69%
10.7Shots13.1
1.21xGBiggest gap2.12
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
WiganPlymouth

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2
Wigan
3
Draws
1
Plymouth
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 67%
0–31–11–12–12–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Wigan
LLLDW
Plymouth
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wigan vs Plymouth — Match Preview

Wigan face Plymouth on November 28, 2026 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Wigan host Plymouth at The Brick Community Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.