Wigan 0–3 Plymouth: Result & Stats | League One

Wigan

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Plymouth

C. Watts 71'

A. Pepple 40', 38'

3/10/2026

League One · Round 26The Brick Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Wigan29%

×Draw24%

Plymouth47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiganExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.69

Wigan

1.26

Plymouth

1.69

Plymouth creates 34% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

1.30

creates per match

2.00

1.38

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Wigan

1.30

Plymouth

2.00

allows per match

Wigan

1.38

Plymouth

1.22

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Wigan-0.42scores less

Plymouth-0.38scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Wigan or draw

53%

Wigan or Plymouth

76%

Draw or Plymouth

71%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+

12%

Plymouth wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals

72%

Wigan 2+ goals

36%

Wigan 3+ goals

13%

Plymouth 1+ goals

82%

Plymouth 2+ goals

50%

Plymouth 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)

38%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.30 + Plymouth defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.26

Plymouth attack 2.00 + Wigan defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wigan scores more

29%

level

24%

Plymouth scores more

47%

Plymouth at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

A. Pepple

Plymouth · F

8.0

Match Events

38'

A. Pepple

40'

A. Pepple↳ M. Boateng

46'

J. Hungbo← C. McManaman

46'

H. Bettoni← M. Smith

53'

Ronan Curtis

64'

Caleb Watts

69'

C. Vickers← C. Saydee

69'

C. Llyton← L. Robinson

71'

C. Watts↳ M. Boateng

74'

B. Wiredu← H. Kane

78'

J. Paterson← J. MacKenzie

78'

X. Amaechi← R. Curtis

83'

R. Borges Rodrigues← F. Murray

86'

O. Oseni← A. Pepple

86'

S. Campbell← C. Watts

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WiganPlymouth

Overview

60%Possession40%

9Total Shots11

5Corners8

6Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots11

2On Target6

3Off Target4

4Blocked1

4Inside Box11

5Outside Box0

Passing

60%Possession40%

423Total Passes267

311Accurate Passes154

74%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls14

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1