Plymouth 1–2 Wigan: Result & Stats | League One

Plymouth

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Wigan

D. Mayor 43'

C. Lang 90'

W. Keane 35'

11/27/2021

League One · Round 20Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Plymouth60%

×Draw21%

Wigan19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchWigan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.08

Plymouth

2.06

Wigan

1.08

Plymouth creates 91% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

2.38

creates per match

0.88

1.28

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Plymouth

2.38

Wigan

0.88

allows per match

Plymouth

1.28

Wigan

1.75

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Plymouth-0.60scores less

Wigan+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Wigan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

81%

Plymouth or Wigan

79%

Draw or Wigan

40%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

36%

Wigan wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

87%

Plymouth 2+ goals

61%

Plymouth 3+ goals

34%

Wigan 1+ goals

66%

Wigan 2+ goals

29%

Wigan 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

76%

Wigan (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.28 · 9 matches

Wigan away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 2.38 + Wigan defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.06

Wigan attack 0.88 + Plymouth defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Plymouth scores more

60%

level

21%

Wigan scores more

19%

Plymouth at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

W. Keane

Wigan · F

8.2

Match Events

35'

W. Keane↳ T. Aasgaard

40'

J. Garrick← L. Jephcott

43'

D. Mayor↳ J. Garrick

63'

Max Power

67'

S. Humphrys← T. Aasgaard

73'

76'

80'

86'

90+4'

G. Massey← J. McClean

90'

C. Lang↳ W. Keane

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlymouthWigan

Overview

54%Possession46%

15Total Shots15

9Corners6

10Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots15

1On Target5

6Off Target6

8Blocked4

10Inside Box10

5Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

382Total Passes331

252Accurate Passes212

66%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3