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Wigan vs Plymouth — League One 2018

Wigan
Wigan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Plymouth
Plymouth
W. Keane 69'
R. Hardie 34'
10/24/2020League OneLeague One · Round 8DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Wigan29%
×Draw24%
Plymouth47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigan
1.28
Plymouth
1.67

Plymouth creates 30% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

creates per match

Wigan
1.34
Plymouth
2.00

allows per match

Wigan
1.34
Plymouth
1.22

finishing

Wigan-0.45scores less
Plymouth-0.38scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Wigan or draw
53%
Wigan or Plymouth
76%
Draw or Plymouth
71%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+
12%
Plymouth wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals
72%
Wigan 2+ goals
37%
Wigan 3+ goals
14%
Plymouth 1+ goals
81%
Plymouth 2+ goals
50%
Plymouth 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)
39%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.34 · 9 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.34 + Plymouth defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.28

Plymouth attack 2.00 + Wigan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wigan scores more
29%
level
24%
Plymouth scores more
47%

Plymouth at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
L. EvansWiganWigan · M
7.6

Match Events

6'
W. Keane← V. Solomon-Otabor
34'
R. Hardie
41'
Curtis Tilt
46'
A. Long← D. Johnson
59'
F. Nouble← L. Jephcott
69'
D. Telford← R. Hardie
69'
W. Keane↳ K. Naismith
70'
Joe Edwards
76'
Panutche Camará← B. Reeves

Possession

50%Wigan

Shots

10Wigan

Pass accuracy

49%Wigan

Statistics

WiganPlymouth
Overview
50%Possession50%
10Total Shots19
3Corners10
12Fouls9
Shots
10Total Shots19
4On Target4
4Off Target7
2Blocked8
4Inside Box13
6Outside Box6
Passing
50%Possession50%
413Total Passes385
308Accurate Passes299
75%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls9
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Wigan vs Plymouth

Wigan and Plymouth drew 1-1 in League One on October 24, 2020.

Goals: R. Hardie (34'), W. Keane (69').

Wigan controlled possession (50%) and registered 10 shots to 19.

The match was played at DW Stadium in Wigan.