Wigan 2–1 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Wigan

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Mansfield Town

J. Taylor 71' (pen)

C. Wright 25'

L. Akins 28'

4/11/2026

League One · Round 43The Brick Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Wigan39%

×Draw28%

Mansfield Town33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiganExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.09

Wigan

1.20

Mansfield Town

1.09

Wigan creates 10% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

1.11

creates per match

0.98

1.21

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Wigan

1.11

Mansfield Town

0.98

allows per match

Wigan

1.21

Mansfield Town

1.28

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Wigan-0.11scores less

Mansfield Town+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Wigan or draw

67%

Wigan or Mansfield Town

72%

Draw or Mansfield Town

61%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+

16%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals

70%

Wigan 2+ goals

34%

Wigan 3+ goals

12%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

66%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

30%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)

54%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.21 · 6 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.11 + Mansfield Town defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

Mansfield Town attack 0.98 + Wigan defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wigan scores more

39%

level

28%

Mansfield Town scores more

33%

Wigan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

C. Wright

Wigan · F

8.2

Match Events

25'

C. Wright↳ R. Borges Rodrigues

28'

L. Akins↳ R. Sweeney

43'

Joe Taylor

45+1'

Ryan Sweeney

55'

C. Saydee← D. Costelloe

64'

S. McLaughlin← R. Sweeney

69'

R. Hendry← J. Russell

69'

T. Roberts← N. Moriah-Welsh

71'

J. TaylorPenalty

74'

Jensen Weir

82'

M. Fox← R. Borges Rodrigues

82'

O. Moxon← M. Smith

82'

R. Trevitt← J. Taylor

87'

J. Gardner← R. Oates

87'

O. Irow← L. Reed

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WiganMansfield

Overview

44%Possession56%

8Total Shots13

1.57Expected Goals (xG)1.84

2Corners4

12Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots13

4On Target4

4Off Target5

1Blocked4

5Inside Box8

3Outside Box5

Passing

44%Possession56%

347Total Passes425

229Accurate Passes307

66%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1