Mansfield Town 1–1 Wigan: Result & Stats

Mansfield Town

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Wigan

W. Evans 32'

O. Cooper 59'

10/25/2025

League One · Round 14One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Mansfield Town48%

×Draw23%

Wigan29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchWigan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.36

Mansfield Town

1.82

Wigan

1.36

Mansfield Town creates 34% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

1.90

creates per match

0.88

1.85

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.90

Wigan

0.88

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.85

Wigan

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Wigan+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Wigan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

71%

Mansfield Town or Wigan

77%

Draw or Wigan

52%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

26%

Wigan wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

84%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

54%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

27%

Wigan 1+ goals

74%

Wigan 2+ goals

39%

Wigan 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

63%

Wigan (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.85 · 10 matches

Wigan away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.90 + Wigan defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.82

Wigan attack 0.88 + Mansfield Town defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

48%

level

23%

Wigan scores more

29%

Mansfield Town at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

M. Fox

Wigan · D

8.9

Match Events

32'

W. Evans↳ N. Moriah-Welsh

39'

Matthew Smith

45+2'

Jamie McDonnell

45'

Fraser Murray

59'

O. Cooper↳ M. Fox

61'

Christian Saydee

65'

R. Hendry← N. Moriah-Welsh

65'

J. Gardner← R. Oates

78'

M. Asamoah← O. Cooper

83'

P. Mullin← C. Saydee

86'

J. Bowery← K. Knoyle

86'

M. Dickov← T. Roberts

90+2'

J. Carragher← C. Wright

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MansfieldWigan

Overview

64%Possession36%

16Total Shots7

10Corners3

13Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots7

1On Target1

4Off Target2

11Blocked4

7Inside Box4

9Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

563Total Passes322

477Accurate Passes239

85%Pass Accuracy74%

Discipline

13Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1