Wigan 0–2 Luton: Result & Stats | Championship

Wigan

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Luton

E. Adebayo 53'

H. Cornick 11'

1/21/2023

Championship · Round 28DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Wigan43%

×Draw28%

Luton29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiganExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.04

Wigan

1.32

Luton

1.04

Wigan creates 27% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 114 away

1.16

creates per match

0.92

1.16

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Wigan

1.16

Luton

0.92

allows per match

Wigan

1.16

Luton

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par

Luton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Wigan or draw

71%

Wigan or Luton

72%

Draw or Luton

57%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+

20%

Luton wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals

73%

Wigan 2+ goals

38%

Wigan 3+ goals

15%

Luton 1+ goals

65%

Luton 2+ goals

28%

Luton 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)

59%

Luton (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 64 matches

Luton away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.49 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.16 + Luton defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.32

Luton attack 0.92 + Wigan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Wigan scores more

43%

level

28%

Luton scores more

29%

Wigan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

H. Cornick

Luton · F

8.2

Match Events

11'

H. Cornick

53'

E. Adebayo↳ H. Cornick

54'

A. Campbell← L. Watson

59'

T. Aasgaard← C. Hughes

59'

C. Lang← M. Azeez

63'

R. Burke← G. Osho

68'

A. Doughty← H. Cornick

72'

72'

77'

81'

81'

J. Magennis← A. Fletcher

85'

Jordan Clark

90+5'

Steven Caulker

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WiganLuton

Overview

62%Possession38%

10Total Shots8

3Corners1

7Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots8

1On Target2

7Off Target4

2Blocked2

7Inside Box7

3Outside Box1

Passing

62%Possession38%

515Total Passes321

411Accurate Passes223

80%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0

Championship: Wigan 0–2 Luton

Luton beat Wigan 2-0 in Championship on January 21, 2023.

Goals: H. Cornick (11'), E. Adebayo (53').

Wigan controlled possession (62%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at DW Stadium in Wigan.

Wigan vs Luton — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Wigan 0–2 Luton