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Luton vs Wigan — League One 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wigan
Wigan
G. Saville 9'
8/19/2025League OneLeague One · Round 4Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Luton50%
×Draw24%
Wigan26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.69
Wigan
1.16

Luton creates 46% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Luton
1.67
Wigan
1.07

allows per match

Luton
1.25
Wigan
1.70

finishing

Luton+0.11scores more
Wigan-0.07on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Wigan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Luton or draw
74%
Luton or Wigan
76%
Draw or Wigan
50%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
27%
Wigan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
82%
Luton 2+ goals
50%
Luton 3+ goals
24%
Wigan 1+ goals
69%
Wigan 2+ goals
32%
Wigan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
65%
Wigan (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

Wigan away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.70 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.67 + Wigan defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.69

Wigan attack 1.07 + Luton defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Luton scores more
50%
level
24%
Wigan scores more
26%

Luton at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
G. SavilleLutonLuton · M
8.2

Match Events

9'
G. Saville↳ L. Walsh
11'
Tobias Brenan
46'
M. Asamoah← T. Brenan
55'
Jason Kerr
56'
L. Nordas← C. Bramall
66'
Z. Nelson← G. Kodua
67'
George Saville
74'
C. Saydee← P. Mullin
74'
D. Costelloe← C. Wright
87'
J. Smith← L. Robinson
88'
J. Hungbo← J. Weir
90+2'
T. Holmes← J. Yates

Possession

66%Luton

Shots

13Luton

Pass accuracy

56%Luton

Statistics

LutonWigan
Overview
66%Possession34%
13Total Shots9
8Corners4
7Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots9
4On Target3
6Off Target5
3Blocked1
7Inside Box6
6Outside Box3
Passing
66%Possession34%
482Total Passes247
378Accurate Passes153
78%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides5

Match Recap: Luton vs Wigan

Luton beat Wigan 1-0 in League One on August 19, 2025.

Goals: G. Saville (9').

Luton controlled possession (66%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton.