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Wigan vs Gillingham — League One 2018

Wigan
Wigan
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Gillingham
Gillingham
W. Keane 77', 8'
S. Humphrys 21'
S. O'Keefe 70'
B. Reeves 53'
1/22/2022League OneLeague One · Round 29DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Wigan41%
×Draw28%
Gillingham32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigan
1.29
Gillingham
1.11

Wigan creates 16% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 99 away

creates per match

Wigan
1.21
Gillingham
1.17

allows per match

Wigan
1.05
Gillingham
1.38

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par
Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Wigan or draw
68%
Wigan or Gillingham
72%
Draw or Gillingham
59%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+
18%
Gillingham wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals
72%
Wigan 2+ goals
37%
Wigan 3+ goals
14%
Gillingham 1+ goals
67%
Gillingham 2+ goals
30%
Gillingham 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)
56%
Gillingham (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 117 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.21 + Gillingham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Gillingham attack 1.17 + Wigan defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wigan scores more
41%
level
28%
Gillingham scores more
32%

Wigan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
G. EdwardsWiganWigan · M
8.3

Match Events

8'
W. Keane↳ G. Edwards
21'
S. Humphrys↳ G. Edwards
31'
Robbie McKenzie
46'
B. Reeves← D. Lloyd-McGoldrick
46'
C. Kelman← M. Carayol
53'
B. Reeves↳ V. Oliver
67'
J. Kerr← G. Edwards
70'
S. O'Keefe
77'
W. Keane↳ J. Kerr
78'
J. Akinde← B. Reeves
86'
G. Massey← S. Humphrys
90'
Tendayi Darikwa

Possession

61%Wigan

Shots

15Wigan

Pass accuracy

56%Wigan

Statistics

WiganGillingham
Overview
61%Possession39%
15Total Shots7
5Corners1
10Fouls10
Shots
15Total Shots7
9On Target2
1Off Target3
5Blocked2
10Inside Box4
5Outside Box3
Passing
61%Possession39%
504Total Passes332
408Accurate Passes210
81%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
10Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

League One: Wigan 3–2 Gillingham

Wigan beat Gillingham 3-2 in League One on January 22, 2022.

Goals: W. Keane (8', 77'), S. Humphrys (21'), B. Reeves (53'), S. O'Keefe (70').

Wigan controlled possession (61%) and registered 15 shots to 7.

The match was played at DW Stadium in Wigan.