Gillingham 1–0 Wigan: Result & Stats | League One

Gillingham

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wigan

3/31/2021

League One · Round 39Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Gillingham34%

×Draw26%

Wigan40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchWigan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.40

Gillingham

1.26

Wigan

1.40

Wigan creates 11% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 117 away

1.19

creates per match

1.32

1.48

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Gillingham

1.19

Wigan

1.32

allows per match

Gillingham

1.48

Wigan

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par

Wigan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Wigan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

60%

Gillingham or Wigan

74%

Draw or Wigan

66%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

15%

Wigan wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

72%

Gillingham 2+ goals

36%

Gillingham 3+ goals

13%

Wigan 1+ goals

75%

Wigan 2+ goals

41%

Wigan 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

46%

Wigan (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches

Wigan away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.33 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.19 + Wigan defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.26

Wigan attack 1.32 + Gillingham defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gillingham scores more

34%

level

26%

Wigan scores more

40%

Wigan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff