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Wigan vs Derby — Championship 2018

Wigan
Wigan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Derby
Derby
J. Marriott 21'
12/8/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 21DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Wigan44%
×Draw27%
Derby30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigan
1.40
Derby
1.11

Wigan creates 26% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 142 away

creates per match

Wigan
1.16
Derby
1.07

allows per match

Wigan
1.16
Derby
1.63

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par
Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Wigan or draw
70%
Wigan or Derby
73%
Draw or Derby
56%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+
21%
Derby wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals
75%
Wigan 2+ goals
41%
Wigan 3+ goals
17%
Derby 1+ goals
67%
Derby 2+ goals
30%
Derby 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)
59%
Derby (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 64 matches

Derby away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.63 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.16 + Derby defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Derby attack 1.07 + Wigan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wigan scores more
44%
level
27%
Derby scores more
30%

Wigan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37
J. BogleDerbyDerby · D
8.4

Match Events

15'
Kal Naismith
21'
J. Marriott↳ J. Bogle
30'
D. Gibson← J. Vaughan
30'
C. Connolly← G. Roberts
32'
Sam Morsy
32'
Harry Wilson
72'
F. Jozefzoon← H. Wilson
76'
Craig Bryson
77'
D. Holmes← C. Bryson
83'
J. Garner← J. Windass
89'
D. Nugent← J. Marriott

Possession

33%Wigan

Shots

7Wigan

Pass accuracy

42%Wigan

Statistics

WiganDerby
Overview
33%Possession67%
7Total Shots16
1Corners6
9Fouls14
Shots
7Total Shots16
2On Target5
4Off Target7
1Blocked4
3Inside Box10
4Outside Box6
Passing
33%Possession67%
268Total Passes543
164Accurate Passes459
61%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Wigan 0 – 1 Derby

Derby beat Wigan 1-0 in Championship on December 8, 2018.

Goals: J. Marriott (21').

Derby controlled possession (67%) and registered 16 shots to 7.

The match was played at DW Stadium in Wigan.