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Derby vs Wigan — League One 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Wigan
Wigan
8/5/2023League OneLeague One · Round 1Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Derby48%
×Draw25%
Wigan26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.55
Wigan
1.07

Derby creates 45% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 116 away

creates per match

Derby
1.76
Wigan
1.32

allows per match

Derby
0.83
Wigan
1.34

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Wigan+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Wigan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Derby or draw
74%
Derby or Wigan
75%
Draw or Wigan
52%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
25%
Wigan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
79%
Derby 2+ goals
46%
Derby 3+ goals
20%
Wigan 1+ goals
66%
Wigan 2+ goals
29%
Wigan 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
65%
Wigan (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

Wigan away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.34 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.76 + Wigan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.55

Wigan attack 1.32 + Derby defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Derby scores more
48%
level
25%
Wigan scores more
26%

Derby at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Derby 1–2 Wigan

Wigan beat Derby 2-1 in League One on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.