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Wigan vs Coventry — Championship 2018

Wigan
Wigan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Coventry
Coventry
K. McFadzean 83' (OG)
V. Gyökeres 52'
3/14/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 37DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Wigan37%
×Draw27%
Coventry36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigan
1.25
Coventry
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 143 away

creates per match

Wigan
1.16
Coventry
1.28

allows per match

Wigan
1.16
Coventry
1.35

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par
Coventry+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Wigan or draw
64%
Wigan or Coventry
73%
Draw or Coventry
63%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+
16%
Coventry wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals
71%
Wigan 2+ goals
36%
Wigan 3+ goals
13%
Coventry 1+ goals
70%
Coventry 2+ goals
34%
Coventry 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)
51%
Coventry (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 64 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.35 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.16 + Coventry defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Coventry attack 1.28 + Wigan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Wigan scores more
37%
level
27%
Coventry scores more
36%

Wigan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
V. GyökeresCoventryCoventry · F
8.3

Match Events

46'
B. Norton-Cuffy← J. Burroughs
46'
B. Sheaf← S. Maguire
52'
V. Gyökeres↳ J. Bidwell
55'
Tendayi Darikwa
61'
J. Magennis← A. Fletcher
61'
T. Aasgaard← C. Tiéhi
61'
T. Pearce← T. Darikwa
73'
C. Lang← D. Sinani
79'
C. Wyke← S. Caulker
83'
K. McFadzeanOwn goal
87'
Gustavo Hamer

Possession

48%Wigan

Shots

10Wigan

Pass accuracy

49%Wigan

Statistics

WiganCoventry
Overview
48%Possession52%
10Total Shots17
6Corners4
18Fouls11
Shots
10Total Shots17
5On Target7
1Off Target5
4Blocked5
5Inside Box13
5Outside Box4
Passing
48%Possession52%
402Total Passes428
280Accurate Passes313
70%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
18Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
4Offsides2

Championship: Wigan 1–1 Coventry

Wigan and Coventry drew 1-1 in Championship on March 14, 2023.

Goals: V. Gyökeres (52'), K. McFadzean (83' o.g.).

Coventry controlled possession (52%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at DW Stadium in Wigan.