Coventry 2–0 Wigan: Result & Stats | Championship

Coventry

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wigan

V. Gyökeres 90+5'

G. Hamer 77'

11/8/2022

Championship · Round 4The Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Coventry50%

×Draw25%

Wigan24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchWigan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.00

Coventry

1.56

Wigan

1.00

Coventry creates 56% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 63 away

1.56

creates per match

0.97

1.03

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Coventry

1.56

Wigan

0.97

allows per match

Coventry

1.03

Wigan

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coventry+0.00on par

Wigan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Wigan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

76%

Coventry or Wigan

75%

Draw or Wigan

50%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

26%

Wigan wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

79%

Coventry 2+ goals

46%

Coventry 3+ goals

21%

Wigan 1+ goals

63%

Wigan 2+ goals

26%

Wigan 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

67%

Wigan (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.03 · 145 matches

Wigan away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.56 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.56 + Wigan defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.56

Wigan attack 0.97 + Coventry defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Coventry scores more

50%

level

25%

Wigan scores more

24%

Coventry at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38

G. Hamer

Coventry · M

8.2

Match Events

21'

Jack Whatmough

38'

Ben Sheaf

60'

N. Broadhead← W. Keane

63'

Jonathan Panzo

68'

J. Allen← K. Palmer

69'

T. Walker← C. OHare

73'

C. Doyle← M. Rose

73'

G. Shinnie← C. Lang

73'

J. Magennis← C. Wyke

77'

G. Hamer↳ B. Sheaf

81'

T. Aasgaard← J. Cousins

82'

G. Edwards← T. Darikwa

90+5'

V. Gyökeres↳ J. Eccles

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventryWigan

Overview

55%Possession45%

14Total Shots6

6Corners4

11Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots6

2On Target0

7Off Target3

5Blocked3

8Inside Box5

6Outside Box1

Passing

55%Possession45%

469Total Passes388

387Accurate Passes282

83%Pass Accuracy73%

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2