Wigan 2–0 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Wigan

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bristol Rovers

J. Smith 70'

J. Carragher 6'

1/25/2025

League One · Round 28The Brick Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Wigan46%

×Draw27%

Bristol Rovers27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiganExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.00

Wigan

1.41

Bristol Rovers

1.00

Wigan creates 41% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 131 away

1.21

creates per match

0.95

1.05

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Wigan

1.21

Bristol Rovers

0.95

allows per match

Wigan

1.05

Bristol Rovers

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Wigan or draw

73%

Wigan or Bristol Rovers

73%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

54%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+

22%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals

76%

Wigan 2+ goals

41%

Wigan 3+ goals

17%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

63%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

26%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)

63%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 117 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.60 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.21 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.41

Bristol Rovers attack 0.95 + Wigan defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wigan scores more

46%

level

27%

Bristol Rovers scores more

27%

Wigan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Carragher

Wigan · D

7.9

Match Events

6'

J. Carragher↳ J. Hungbo

32'

40'

45+3'

54'

58'

62'

S. Sinclair← L. Thomas

62'

S. Forde← R. Sawyers

69'

H. McHugh← O. Norburn

69'

C. Martin← I. Hutchinson

70'

J. Smith↳ D. Taylor

77'

J. Lindsay← G. Ward

77'

C. Mola← L. Sousa

87'

W. Goodwin← D. Taylor

87'

J. Mellish← S. Thomas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WiganBristol

Overview

36%Possession64%

10Total Shots5

2Corners3

8Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots5

2On Target3

5Off Target1

3Blocked1

5Inside Box3

5Outside Box2

Passing

36%Possession64%

304Total Passes556

240Accurate Passes482

79%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

8Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1