Bristol Rovers 0–4 Wigan: Result & Stats

Bristol Rovers

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Wigan

L. Chambers 71'

T. Aasgaard 50'

J. Hugill 40', 20'

9/14/2024

League One · Round 6Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Bristol Rovers35%

×Draw26%

Wigan38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchWigan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.33

Bristol Rovers

1.27

Wigan

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 117 away

1.20

creates per match

1.32

1.34

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.20

Wigan

1.32

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.34

Wigan

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Wigan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Wigan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

62%

Bristol Rovers or Wigan

74%

Draw or Wigan

65%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

15%

Wigan wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

72%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

36%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

14%

Wigan 1+ goals

74%

Wigan 2+ goals

38%

Wigan 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

48%

Wigan (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.34 · 133 matches

Wigan away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.33 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.20 + Wigan defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Wigan attack 1.32 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

35%

level

26%

Wigan scores more

38%

Wigan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

L. Chambers

Wigan · D

8.3

Match Events

20'

J. Hugill

40'

J. Hugill

44'

Thelo Aasgaard

46'

S. Sinclair← I. Hutchinson

46'

C. Taylor← L. Sousa

50'

T. Aasgaard

61'

S. Forde← R. Sotiriou

61'

J. Lindsay← J. Garrett

66'

C. McManaman← D. Rankine

69'

G. O'Donkor← P. Omochere

71'

L. Chambers

75'

D. Taylor← T. Aasgaard

75'

B. Adeeko← M. Smith

76'

M. Asamoah← S. Thomas

80'

C. Ramsay← J. Carragher

84'

Taylor Moore

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolWigan

Overview

53%Possession47%

11Total Shots23

5Corners4

11Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots23

2On Target8

7Off Target8

2Blocked7

5Inside Box15

6Outside Box8

Passing

53%Possession47%

352Total Passes326

256Accurate Passes243

73%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls12

0Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0