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Wigan vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Wigan
Wigan
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Bristol City
Bristol City
F. Diedhiou 79'
J. Paterson 77'
1/11/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 27DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Wigan41%
×Draw27%
Bristol City32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigan
1.32
Bristol City
1.15

Wigan creates 15% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 188 away

creates per match

Wigan
1.16
Bristol City
1.15

allows per match

Wigan
1.16
Bristol City
1.49

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par
Bristol City+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Wigan or draw
68%
Wigan or Bristol City
73%
Draw or Bristol City
59%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+
18%
Bristol City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals
73%
Wigan 2+ goals
38%
Wigan 3+ goals
15%
Bristol City 1+ goals
68%
Bristol City 2+ goals
32%
Bristol City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)
56%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 64 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.49 · 188 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.16 + Bristol City defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.32

Bristol City attack 1.15 + Wigan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wigan scores more
41%
level
27%
Bristol City scores more
32%

Wigan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
J. PatersonBristol CityBristol City · F
8.3

Match Events

46'
J. Paterson← M. Watkins
54'
Antonee Robinson
60'
Á. Nagy← H. Massengo
68'
J. Gelhardt← J. Williams
68'
J. Garner← J. Windass
70'
T. Rowe← K. Smith
77'
J. Paterson↳ F. Diedhiou
79'
F. Diedhiou↳ J. Paterson
86'
L. MacLeod← L. Evans
90'
Nathan Baker

Possession

69%Wigan

Shots

17Wigan

Pass accuracy

59%Wigan

Statistics

WiganBristol
Overview
69%Possession31%
17Total Shots6
5Corners6
9Fouls10
Shots
17Total Shots6
7On Target3
6Off Target2
4Blocked1
7Inside Box4
10Outside Box2
Passing
69%Possession31%
617Total Passes267
532Accurate Passes162
86%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
Discipline
9Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Wigan vs Bristol City

Bristol City beat Wigan 2-0 in Championship on January 11, 2020.

Goals: J. Paterson (77'), F. Diedhiou (79').

Wigan controlled possession (69%) and registered 17 shots to 6.

The match was played at DW Stadium in Wigan.