Bristol City 2–2 Wigan: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Wigan

Pedro Pereira 86'

A. Weimann 39'

C. Dunkley 53', 44'

10/27/2019

Championship · Round 14Ashton Gate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Bristol City45%

×Draw27%

Wigan29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchWigan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.08

Bristol City

1.42

Wigan

1.08

Bristol City creates 31% more chances

Season form · 191 home / 63 away

1.28

creates per match

0.97

1.20

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Bristol City

1.28

Wigan

0.97

allows per match

Bristol City

1.20

Wigan

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol City+0.00on par

Wigan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Wigan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

71%

Bristol City or Wigan

73%

Draw or Wigan

55%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

22%

Wigan wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

76%

Bristol City 2+ goals

41%

Bristol City 3+ goals

17%

Wigan 1+ goals

66%

Wigan 2+ goals

29%

Wigan 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

61%

Wigan (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.20 · 191 matches

Wigan away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.56 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.28 + Wigan defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.42

Wigan attack 0.97 + Bristol City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bristol City scores more

45%

level

27%

Wigan scores more

29%

Bristol City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

C. Dunkley

Wigan · D

8.4

Match Events

4'

Antonee Robinson

39'

A. Weimann↳ T. Rowe

44'

C. Dunkley↳ K. Moore

46'

N. Eliasson← T. Moore

53'

C. Dunkley↳ J. Williams

57'

H. Massengo← K. Palmer

58'

63'

65'

68'

72'

K. Naismith← J. Williams

86'

Pedro Pereira↳ N. Eliasson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolWigan

Overview

54%Possession46%

9Total Shots20

5Corners10

8Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots20

4On Target8

2Off Target9

3Blocked3

8Inside Box11

1Outside Box9

Passing

54%Possession46%

436Total Passes348

327Accurate Passes228

75%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1