Wigan 1–0 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Wigan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bristol City

N. Powell 52'

9/21/2018

Championship · Round 9DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Wigan41%

×Draw27%

Bristol City32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiganExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.15

Wigan

1.32

Bristol City

1.15

Wigan creates 15% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 188 away

1.16

creates per match

1.15

1.16

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Wigan

1.16

Bristol City

1.15

allows per match

Wigan

1.16

Bristol City

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par

Bristol City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Wigan or draw

68%

Wigan or Bristol City

73%

Draw or Bristol City

59%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+

18%

Bristol City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals

73%

Wigan 2+ goals

38%

Wigan 3+ goals

15%

Bristol City 1+ goals

68%

Bristol City 2+ goals

32%

Bristol City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)

56%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 64 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.49 · 188 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.16 + Bristol City defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.32

Bristol City attack 1.15 + Wigan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wigan scores more

41%

level

27%

Bristol City scores more

32%

Wigan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Windass

Wigan · M

7.7

Match Events

45'

Joe Garner

52'

N. Powell↳ J. Windass

61'

C. O'Dowda← N. Eliasson

61'

M. Watkins← J. Paterson

71'

D. Gibson← N. Powell

73'

C. Connolly← J. Garner

76'

N. Baker← T. Kalas

85'

Marlon Pack

90'

Callumm Connolly

90+2'

K. Naismith← M. Jacobs

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WiganBristol

Overview

42%Possession58%

9Total Shots9

2Corners4

12Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots9

1On Target3

7Off Target4

1Blocked2

2Inside Box7

7Outside Box2

Passing

42%Possession58%

327Total Passes450

204Accurate Passes328

62%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

3Offsides6