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Wiener Viktoria vs SV Horn — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Wiener Viktoria
Wiener Viktoria
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
SV Horn
SV Horn
5/2/2026Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 29Sportplatz Wiener Viktoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Wiener Viktoria44%
×Draw24%
SV Horn32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiener Viktoria
1.63
SV Horn
1.36

Wiener Viktoria creates 20% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 16 away

creates per match

Wiener Viktoria
1.89
SV Horn
1.25

allows per match

Wiener Viktoria
1.48
SV Horn
1.38

finishing

Wiener Viktoria+0.00on par
SV Horn+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiener Viktoria ↓

SV Horn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wiener Viktoria or draw
68%
Wiener Viktoria or SV Horn
76%
Draw or SV Horn
56%

Winning margin

Wiener Viktoria wins by 2+
22%
SV Horn wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Wiener Viktoria 1+ goals
80%
Wiener Viktoria 2+ goals
48%
Wiener Viktoria 3+ goals
22%
SV Horn 1+ goals
74%
SV Horn 2+ goals
39%
SV Horn 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Wiener Viktoria (draw refunded)
58%
SV Horn (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiener Viktoria at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.48 · 88 matches

SV Horn away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiener Viktoria attack 1.89 + SV Horn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.63

SV Horn attack 1.25 + Wiener Viktoria defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wiener Viktoria scores more
44%
level
24%
SV Horn scores more
32%

Wiener Viktoria at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wiener Viktoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Wiener Viktoria 3–1 SV Horn

Wiener Viktoria beat SV Horn 3-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on May 2, 2026.

The match was played at Sportplatz Wiener Viktoria in Wien.