Wiener Viktoria 1–2 SV Horn: Result & Stats

Wiener Viktoria

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

SV Horn

1/20/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportplatz Wiener Viktoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Wiener Viktoria47%

×Draw21%

SV Horn31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wiener ViktoriaExpected goals in this matchSV Horn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.68

Wiener Viktoria

2.09

SV Horn

1.68

Wiener Viktoria creates 24% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.91

creates per match

2.09

1.27

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Wiener Viktoria

1.91

SV Horn

2.09

allows per match

Wiener Viktoria

1.27

SV Horn

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wiener Viktoria+0.00on par

SV Horn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiener Viktoria ↓

SV Horn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Wiener Viktoria or draw

69%

Wiener Viktoria or SV Horn

79%

Draw or SV Horn

53%

Winning margin

Wiener Viktoria wins by 2+

27%

SV Horn wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Wiener Viktoria 1+ goals

88%

Wiener Viktoria 2+ goals

62%

Wiener Viktoria 3+ goals

34%

SV Horn 1+ goals

81%

SV Horn 2+ goals

50%

SV Horn 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Wiener Viktoria (draw refunded)

60%

SV Horn (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiener Viktoria at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

SV Horn away — creates 2.09, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiener Viktoria attack 1.91 + SV Horn defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.09

SV Horn attack 2.09 + Wiener Viktoria defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wiener Viktoria scores more

47%

level

21%

SV Horn scores more

31%

Wiener Viktoria at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wiener Viktoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff