Wiener Viktoria 0–2 First Vienna: Result & Stats

Wiener Viktoria

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

First Vienna

N. Zatl 86'

L. Grozurek 60'

3/5/2022

Regionalliga - Ost · Ost - 26Sportplatz Wiener Viktoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Wiener Viktoria25%

×Draw23%

First Vienna52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wiener ViktoriaExpected goals in this matchFirst Vienna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.85

Wiener Viktoria

1.21

First Vienna

1.85

First Vienna creates 53% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 13 away

1.89

creates per match

2.23

1.48

allows per match

0.54

creates per match

Wiener Viktoria

1.89

First Vienna

2.23

allows per match

Wiener Viktoria

1.48

First Vienna

0.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wiener Viktoria+0.00on par

First Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiener Viktoria ↓

First Vienna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Wiener Viktoria or draw

48%

Wiener Viktoria or First Vienna

77%

Draw or First Vienna

75%

Winning margin

Wiener Viktoria wins by 2+

10%

First Vienna wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Wiener Viktoria 1+ goals

70%

Wiener Viktoria 2+ goals

34%

Wiener Viktoria 3+ goals

12%

First Vienna 1+ goals

84%

First Vienna 2+ goals

55%

First Vienna 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Wiener Viktoria (draw refunded)

32%

First Vienna (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiener Viktoria at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.48 · 88 matches

First Vienna away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiener Viktoria attack 1.89 + First Vienna defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 1.21

First Vienna attack 2.23 + Wiener Viktoria defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Wiener Viktoria scores more

25%

level

23%

First Vienna scores more

52%

First Vienna at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "First Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

L. Grozurek

72'

K. Bangai← Gustavo

72'

N. Zatl← D. Alar

79'

L. Edelhofer← D. Luxbacher

86'

N. Zatl

88'

B. Luxbacher← L. Grozurek

88'

M. Szotkowski← T. Šimkovič

Wiener

First

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: T. Polster

72'▲K. Bangai←▼Gustavo

Wiener Viktoria substitutes

BangaiFilaMaslowskiHoriuchiMwatero

Manager: A. Zellhofer

72'▲N. Zatl←▼D. Alar

79'▲L. Edelhofer←▼D. Luxbacher

88'▲B. Luxbacher←▼L. Grozurek

88'▲M. Szotkowski←▼T. Šimkovič

First Vienna substitutes

ZatlEdelhoferLuxbacherSzotkowskiBacherKazan