First Vienna 0–0 Wiener Viktoria: Result & Stats

First Vienna

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wiener Viktoria

10/22/2021

Regionalliga - Ost · Ost - 13Naturarena Hohe Warte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

First Vienna57%

×Draw23%

Wiener Viktoria20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

First ViennaExpected goals in this matchWiener Viktoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.96

First Vienna

1.79

Wiener Viktoria

0.96

First Vienna creates 86% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 89 away

1.77

creates per match

1.07

0.85

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

First Vienna

1.77

Wiener Viktoria

1.07

allows per match

First Vienna

0.85

Wiener Viktoria

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

First Vienna+0.00on par

Wiener Viktoria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

First Vienna ↓

Wiener Viktoria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

First Vienna or draw

80%

First Vienna or Wiener Viktoria

77%

Draw or Wiener Viktoria

43%

Winning margin

First Vienna wins by 2+

32%

Wiener Viktoria wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

First Vienna 1+ goals

83%

First Vienna 2+ goals

53%

First Vienna 3+ goals

26%

Wiener Viktoria 1+ goals

62%

Wiener Viktoria 2+ goals

25%

Wiener Viktoria 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

First Vienna (draw refunded)

74%

Wiener Viktoria (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

First Vienna at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Wiener Viktoria away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.81 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

First Vienna attack 1.77 + Wiener Viktoria defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.79

Wiener Viktoria attack 1.07 + First Vienna defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

First Vienna scores more

57%

level

23%

Wiener Viktoria scores more

20%

First Vienna at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "First Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff