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Wiener Viktoria vs Ardagger — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Wiener Viktoria
Wiener Viktoria
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Ardagger
Ardagger
8/5/2023Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 2Sportplatz Wiener Viktoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wiener Viktoria56%
×Draw24%
Ardagger21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiener Viktoria
1.75
Ardagger
0.97

Wiener Viktoria creates 80% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 15 away

creates per match

Wiener Viktoria
1.89
Ardagger
0.47

allows per match

Wiener Viktoria
1.48
Ardagger
1.60

finishing

Wiener Viktoria+0.00on par
Ardagger+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiener Viktoria ↓

Ardagger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Wiener Viktoria or draw
79%
Wiener Viktoria or Ardagger
76%
Draw or Ardagger
44%

Winning margin

Wiener Viktoria wins by 2+
31%
Ardagger wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Wiener Viktoria 1+ goals
83%
Wiener Viktoria 2+ goals
52%
Wiener Viktoria 3+ goals
25%
Ardagger 1+ goals
62%
Ardagger 2+ goals
25%
Ardagger 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Wiener Viktoria (draw refunded)
73%
Ardagger (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiener Viktoria at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.48 · 88 matches

Ardagger away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiener Viktoria attack 1.89 + Ardagger defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.75

Ardagger attack 0.47 + Wiener Viktoria defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Wiener Viktoria scores more
56%
level
24%
Ardagger scores more
21%

Wiener Viktoria at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Wiener Viktoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Wiener Viktoria 3–2 Ardagger

Wiener Viktoria beat Ardagger 3-2 in Regionalliga - Ost on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Wiener Viktoria in Wien.