Ardagger 0–0 Wiener Viktoria: Result & Stats

Ardagger

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wiener Viktoria

3/2/2024

Regionalliga - Ost · Ost - 17Sportplatz SCU Ardagger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ardagger47%

×Draw27%

Wiener Viktoria26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArdaggerExpected goals in this matchWiener Viktoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.97

Ardagger

1.41

Wiener Viktoria

0.97

Ardagger creates 45% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 89 away

1.00

creates per match

1.07

0.87

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Ardagger

1.00

Wiener Viktoria

1.07

allows per match

Ardagger

0.87

Wiener Viktoria

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ardagger+0.00on par

Wiener Viktoria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ardagger ↓

Wiener Viktoria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ardagger or draw

74%

Ardagger or Wiener Viktoria

73%

Draw or Wiener Viktoria

53%

Winning margin

Ardagger wins by 2+

23%

Wiener Viktoria wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ardagger 1+ goals

76%

Ardagger 2+ goals

41%

Ardagger 3+ goals

17%

Wiener Viktoria 1+ goals

62%

Wiener Viktoria 2+ goals

25%

Wiener Viktoria 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ardagger (draw refunded)

65%

Wiener Viktoria (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ardagger at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Wiener Viktoria away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.81 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ardagger attack 1.00 + Wiener Viktoria defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.41

Wiener Viktoria attack 1.07 + Ardagger defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ardagger scores more

47%

level

27%

Wiener Viktoria scores more

26%

Ardagger at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ardagger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff