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Wiener SC vs Team Wiener Linien — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Wiener SC
Wiener SC
CANC
18:30
Team Wiener Linien
Team Wiener Linien
2/26/2021Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 12Sportclub-Platz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Wiener SC47%
×Draw23%
Team Wiener Linien29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiener SC
1.75
Team Wiener Linien
1.33

Wiener SC creates 32% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 28 away

creates per match

Wiener SC
1.88
Team Wiener Linien
1.43

allows per match

Wiener SC
1.23
Team Wiener Linien
1.61

finishing

Wiener SC+0.00on par
Team Wiener Linien+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiener SC ↓

Team Wiener Linien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Wiener SC or draw
71%
Wiener SC or Team Wiener Linien
77%
Draw or Team Wiener Linien
53%

Winning margin

Wiener SC wins by 2+
25%
Team Wiener Linien wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wiener SC 1+ goals
83%
Wiener SC 2+ goals
52%
Wiener SC 3+ goals
25%
Team Wiener Linien 1+ goals
74%
Team Wiener Linien 2+ goals
38%
Team Wiener Linien 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wiener SC (draw refunded)
62%
Team Wiener Linien (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiener SC at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.23 · 104 matches

Team Wiener Linien away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiener SC attack 1.88 + Team Wiener Linien defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.75

Team Wiener Linien attack 1.43 + Wiener SC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wiener SC scores more
47%
level
23%
Team Wiener Linien scores more
29%

Wiener SC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wiener SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wiener SC vs Team Wiener Linien — Match Preview

Wiener SC face Team Wiener Linien on February 26, 2021 in this Regionalliga - Ost fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Wiener SC host Team Wiener Linien at Sportclub-Platz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.