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Team Wiener Linien vs Wiener SC — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Team Wiener Linien
Team Wiener Linien
CANC
16:30
Wiener SC
Wiener SC
5/29/2021Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 25Sportplatz Rax

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Team Wiener Linien41%
×Draw25%
Wiener SC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Team Wiener Linien
1.54
Wiener SC
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 100 away

creates per match

Team Wiener Linien
1.54
Wiener SC
1.61

allows per match

Team Wiener Linien
1.21
Wiener SC
1.55

finishing

Team Wiener Linien+0.00on par
Wiener SC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Team Wiener Linien ↓

Wiener SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Team Wiener Linien or draw
65%
Team Wiener Linien or Wiener SC
75%
Draw or Wiener SC
59%

Winning margin

Team Wiener Linien wins by 2+
20%
Wiener SC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Team Wiener Linien 1+ goals
79%
Team Wiener Linien 2+ goals
45%
Team Wiener Linien 3+ goals
20%
Wiener SC 1+ goals
76%
Wiener SC 2+ goals
41%
Wiener SC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Team Wiener Linien (draw refunded)
54%
Wiener SC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Team Wiener Linien at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

Wiener SC away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.55 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Team Wiener Linien attack 1.54 + Wiener SC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.54

Wiener SC attack 1.61 + Team Wiener Linien defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Team Wiener Linien scores more
41%
level
25%
Wiener SC scores more
35%

Team Wiener Linien at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Team Wiener Linien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Team Wiener Linien host Wiener SC

May 29, 2021: Team Wiener Linien take on Wiener SC in Regionalliga - Ost. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Team Wiener Linien host Wiener SC at Sportplatz Rax.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.