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Wiener SC vs Krems — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Wiener SC
Wiener SC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Krems
Krems
4/28/2023Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 26Sportclub-Platz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Wiener SC50%
×Draw23%
Krems27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiener SC
1.77
Krems
1.25

Wiener SC creates 42% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 32 away

creates per match

Wiener SC
1.88
Krems
1.28

allows per match

Wiener SC
1.23
Krems
1.66

finishing

Wiener SC+0.00on par
Krems+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiener SC ↓

Krems →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Wiener SC or draw
73%
Wiener SC or Krems
77%
Draw or Krems
50%

Winning margin

Wiener SC wins by 2+
27%
Krems wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Wiener SC 1+ goals
83%
Wiener SC 2+ goals
53%
Wiener SC 3+ goals
26%
Krems 1+ goals
71%
Krems 2+ goals
36%
Krems 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wiener SC (draw refunded)
65%
Krems (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiener SC at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.23 · 104 matches

Krems away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiener SC attack 1.88 + Krems defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.77

Krems attack 1.28 + Wiener SC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wiener SC scores more
50%
level
23%
Krems scores more
27%

Wiener SC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wiener SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Wiener SC 1–1 Krems

Wiener SC and Krems drew 1-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on April 28, 2023.

The match was played at Sportclub-Platz in Wien.