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Krems vs Wiener SC — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Krems
Krems
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wiener SC
Wiener SC
10/7/2022Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 11Sepp-Doll-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Krems43%
×Draw24%
Wiener SC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krems
1.68
Wiener SC
1.46

Krems creates 15% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 100 away

creates per match

Krems
1.81
Wiener SC
1.61

allows per match

Krems
1.31
Wiener SC
1.55

finishing

Krems+0.00on par
Wiener SC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krems ↓

Wiener SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Krems or draw
66%
Krems or Wiener SC
76%
Draw or Wiener SC
57%

Winning margin

Krems wins by 2+
22%
Wiener SC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Krems 1+ goals
81%
Krems 2+ goals
50%
Krems 3+ goals
24%
Wiener SC 1+ goals
77%
Wiener SC 2+ goals
43%
Wiener SC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Krems (draw refunded)
56%
Wiener SC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krems at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

Wiener SC away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.55 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krems attack 1.81 + Wiener SC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.68

Wiener SC attack 1.61 + Krems defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Krems scores more
43%
level
24%
Wiener SC scores more
34%

Krems at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Krems will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Krems 1–1 Wiener SC

Krems and Wiener SC drew 1-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on October 7, 2022.

The match was played at Sepp-Doll-Stadion in Krems.