Wiener SC 3–0 First Vienna: Result & Stats

Wiener SC

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

First Vienna

E. Keles 67'

L. Gusic 30'

M. Beljan 15'

1/17/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportplatz Trainingszentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wiener SC34%

×Draw20%

First Vienna45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wiener SCExpected goals in this matchFirst Vienna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

2.24

Wiener SC

1.94

First Vienna

2.24

First Vienna creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

2.27

creates per match

2.61

1.87

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Wiener SC

2.27

First Vienna

2.61

allows per match

Wiener SC

1.87

First Vienna

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wiener SC+0.00on par

First Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiener SC ↓

First Vienna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Wiener SC or draw

55%

Wiener SC or First Vienna

80%

Draw or First Vienna

66%

Winning margin

Wiener SC wins by 2+

18%

First Vienna wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Wiener SC 1+ goals

86%

Wiener SC 2+ goals

58%

Wiener SC 3+ goals

30%

First Vienna 1+ goals

89%

First Vienna 2+ goals

65%

First Vienna 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Wiener SC (draw refunded)

43%

First Vienna (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiener SC at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

First Vienna away — creates 2.61, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiener SC attack 2.27 + First Vienna defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.94

First Vienna attack 2.61 + Wiener SC defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wiener SC scores more

34%

level

20%

First Vienna scores more

45%

First Vienna at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "First Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

M. Beljan

30'

L. Gusic

67'

E. Keles

Wiener

First

Manager: R. Weinstabl

Manager: Johann Kleer

Match Recap: Wiener SC vs First Vienna

Wiener SC beat First Vienna 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 17, 2025.

Goals: M. Beljan (15'), L. Gusic (30'), E. Keles (67').

The match was played at Sportplatz Trainingszentrum in Wien.

Wiener SC vs First Vienna — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Wiener SC vs First Vienna