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First Vienna vs Wiener SC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

First Vienna
First Vienna
FT
5 – 2
Wiener SC
Wiener SC
2/16/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Naturarena Hohe Warte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

First Vienna61%
×Draw17%
Wiener SC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

First Vienna
3.21
Wiener SC
1.99

First Vienna creates 61% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 6 away

creates per match

First Vienna
3.26
Wiener SC
2.33

allows per match

First Vienna
1.65
Wiener SC
3.17

finishing

First Vienna+0.00on par
Wiener SC+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

First Vienna ↓

Wiener SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
89%11%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

First Vienna or draw
77%
First Vienna or Wiener SC
83%
Draw or Wiener SC
39%

Winning margin

First Vienna wins by 2+
42%
Wiener SC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

First Vienna 1+ goals
96%
First Vienna 2+ goals
82%
First Vienna 3+ goals
60%
Wiener SC 1+ goals
86%
Wiener SC 2+ goals
59%
Wiener SC 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

First Vienna (draw refunded)
73%
Wiener SC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

First Vienna at home — creates 3.26, concedes 1.65 · 23 matches

Wiener SC away — creates 2.33, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

First Vienna attack 3.26 + Wiener SC defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 3.21

Wiener SC attack 2.33 + First Vienna defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

First Vienna scores more
61%
level
17%
Wiener SC scores more
23%

First Vienna at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "First Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: First Vienna 5–2 Wiener SC

First Vienna beat Wiener SC 5-2 in Friendlies Clubs on February 16, 2024.

The match was played at Naturarena Hohe Warte in Wien.