Wiener SC 2–1 Draßburg: Result & Stats

Wiener SC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Draßburg

5/5/2023

Regionalliga - Ost · Ost - 27Sportclub-Platz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Wiener SC56%

×Draw22%

Draßburg22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wiener SCExpected goals in this matchDraßburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.13

Wiener SC

1.94

Draßburg

1.13

Wiener SC creates 72% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 57 away

1.88

creates per match

1.02

1.23

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Wiener SC

1.88

Draßburg

1.02

allows per match

Wiener SC

1.23

Draßburg

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wiener SC+0.00on par

Draßburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiener SC ↓

Draßburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Wiener SC or draw

78%

Wiener SC or Draßburg

78%

Draw or Draßburg

44%

Winning margin

Wiener SC wins by 2+

33%

Draßburg wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Wiener SC 1+ goals

86%

Wiener SC 2+ goals

58%

Wiener SC 3+ goals

30%

Draßburg 1+ goals

68%

Draßburg 2+ goals

31%

Draßburg 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Wiener SC (draw refunded)

72%

Draßburg (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiener SC at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.23 · 104 matches

Draßburg away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.00 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiener SC attack 1.88 + Draßburg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Draßburg attack 1.02 + Wiener SC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Wiener SC scores more

56%

level

22%

Draßburg scores more

22%

Wiener SC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Wiener SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff